March Chgo Wheat closed 27 ½ cents higher ($7.69), May 25 ¾ cents higher ($7.70 ¼) & July 22 ¼ cents higher ($7.59 ½)
March KC Wheat closed 27 ¾ cents higher ($7.72 ¾), May 27 cents higher ($7.75 ¼) & July 25 ¼ cents higher ($7.77)
March Mpls Wheat closed 28 ¾ cents higher ($9.07), May 27 ¾ cents higher ($9.04 ¾) & July 24 ½ cents higher ($8.97 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 369.1 K T. vs. 200-400 K T. expected
Wheat prices rally sharply out of its recent hole as recent tensions between Ukraine and Russia prompts buying. If the two sides engage in an armed conflict it takes both of them out of the wheat export business. Wheat prices also garner support from the solid looking weekly export inspections. It appears the recent break in prices has prompted some new buying interest on a global level. Inter-market spreading against short corn and soybeans lends additional support.
Advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat continue to run unchanged. I am hearing about protein premiums trying to bounce back after their recent sharp sell-off. The gulf basis for HRW continues to show a firm tone while the SRW market appears fully steady. The stair-stepping trend tighter continues for the Chgo spreads. KC spreads are trying to stabilize after moving wider for the past few weeks.
Chgo wheat is trying to advertise it has gone low enough for now as I see an interim double bottom against the $7.35 level. Trendline resistance shows up in the mid-$7.80’s. The KC picture is not as solid looking when compared to Chgo. If the US wheat market has a made a low that we can lean against I have to think the “hard” varieties should lead the way higher. That would represent better business and so that has been wishful thinking. I’m thinking today was more emotional than anything else.
Daily Support & Resistance – 01/19
March Chgo: $7.55 – $7.85
March KC: $7.60 – $7.88
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