Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed ¼ cent higher ($4.48 ¾), Sept ¼ cent higher ($4.56 ¼) & Dec ¼ cent lower ($4.70 ½)

July KC Wheat closed 6 ¾ cents lower ($4.02), Sept 6 ½ cents lower ($4.13) & Dec 6 ¼ cents lower ($4.34 ¼)

July Mpls Wheat closed 8 cents lower ($5.15 ¼), Sept 7 ¼ cents lower ($5.24 ½) & Dec 7 ½ cents lower ($5.37 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected

Chgo wheat was the upside leader until profit taking set in. It’s only natural we see some profit taking on a 45 cent rally since Monday’s lows. Mpls was the downside leader suggesting N. Dakota is getting some further planting done. The weakness in Mpls spilled over into KC and that eventually spilled over into Chgo. I’m thinking the support for Chgo is being derived from ideas of developing disease in the SRW crop. The SRW areas are already wet and now it is going to warm up; perfect conditions for disease development. For sure Chgo should maintain its dominance over the “hard” markets.

Interior cash wheat markets remain fairly quiet. US wheat producers remain skeptical sellers despite the recent rally. Export values have a slight soft look. Chgo wheat spreads ran steady to fractionally better. KC spreads lost ground due to the flat price profit taking.

Even though I don’t have a solid fundamental rationale for sustaining a rally the technical side of the equation suggests the wheat markets should be no worse that a consolidating affair that may feature some additional backing and filling in the short term.

Daily Support & Resistance for 05/16

July Chgo Wheat: $4.44 – $4.60

July KC Wheat: $3.98 – $4.14

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.