Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 16 ½ cents lower ($4.90 ¾), Sept 17 cents lower ($4.97 ¾) & Dec 17 ½ cents lower ($5.11)

July KC Wheat closed 22 ¾ cents lower ($4.45 ¾), Sept 22 ¾ cents lower ($4.58 ¾) & Dec 21 ¾ cents lower ($4.81 ¾)

July Mpls Wheat closed 13 ½ cents lower ($5.47), Sept 13 ¼ cents lower ($5.56 ¾) & Dec 12 ¾ cents lower ($5.71)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. -100+200 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-400 K t. expected

IEG Vantage (Informa) – is suggesting total planted wheat acres at 45.084 million vs. the USDA at 45.754 million leading to total production 1.911 billion bu. vs. the USDA at 1.897 billion bu.

July KC wheat loses 50 cents from Tuesday’s high to today’s low. July Chgo wheat loses 40 cents from Tuesday’s high to today’s low. The spec trade is still reeling from Monday’s conditions’ reports suggesting the US crop is in good shape despite ideas of quality issues. We can have a decent sized crop even though the quality is suspect. The recent talk out of parts of Russia and Ukraine flirting with hot & dry took a back seat to the fund selling today. We will continue to monitor that area of the world but so far all we have done is to suggest their crop has topped out but that doesn’t mean it will start declining.

The interior SRW looks mixed – The Ohio River looks stronger while Decatur, IN is softer. I’m not seeing any notable changes within the HRW interior basis. Export values for both varieties appear to be running unchanged. Chgo spreads shoed a bullish bias out to March while KC spreads saw continued leaking. I still think it will be interesting to see how these nearby spreads in both Chgo and KC react as we get closer to July’s first notice day.

Needless to say after the recent two days of selling the wheat charts look pretty ugly, July Chgo has a smattering of support in the mid-low $4.80’s and then better down towards $4.70. July KC shows some minor support $4.40 to $4.35, better down towards the mid-high $4.20’s. The shorter term intra-day and inter-day caution against selling current levels while the daily wheat charts still say we are supposed to be selling rallies.

Daily Support & Resistance for 06/06

July Chgo Wheat: $4.84 – $5.05

July KC Wheat: $4.35 – $4.65

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.