Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 14 cents lower ($5.14), Sept 15 ½ cents lower ($5.11 ¾) & Dec 14 ¼ cents lower ($5.24 ¼)

July KC Wheat closed 16 ¾ cents lower ($4.34 ¾), Sept 17 ½ cents lower ($4.44) & Dec 17 ½ cents lower ($4.67)

July Mpls Wheat closed 11 cents lower ($5.43 ¼), Sept 9 ¾ cents lower ($5.44 ½) & Dec 9 ½ cents lower ($5.58)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 609.0 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat

Weekly Winter Wheat Progress & Condition – 63% GE (+2%) vs. 61% expected vs. 37% year ago – Harvested – 30% vs. 30% expected vs. 48% 5-year average

Weekly Spring Wheat Progress & Condition – 75% GE (unch) vs. 75% expected vs. 77% year ago – Headed – 25% vs. 52% 5-year average

For what it is worth I thought the USDA wheat reports on Friday were a big nothing as far as directly impacting the wheat market. Unfortunately wheat had been trying to trade with corn thinking there would be better feed wheat demand further down the road. The trade was also trying to hang their hats on the conditions in Europe and parts of Russia that had been dealing with heat and dryness. I’m told conditions there are beginning to ease. The bearishness of the corn report spilled over to the wheat killing any idea of improved feed demand. Harvest is beginning to expand in the HRW regions as well as in the southern areas where the SRW is grown. Early yield results, I’m being told, are coming in better than expected as far as quality is concerned especially in the HRW.

Where harvest is happening wheat basis levels are easier. September forward spreads in Chgo were mostly definitely under the gun. Similar spreads in KC were just mildly easier.

As far as my opinion is concerned Sept Chgo wheat charts are looking at the $4.90-$4.80 level for initial support on the current break. Sept KC is looking at $4.30 followed by something closer to $4.10.

Daily Support & Resistance for 07/02

Sept Chgo Wheat: $5.04 ($4.99) – $5.24

Sept KC Wheat: $4.37 ($4.32) – $4.57

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.