Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 27 ¾ cents lower ($4.71 ¾), Dec 25 ¼ cents lower ($4.76 ¼) & March 25 cents lower ($4.84)

Sept KC Wheat closed 24 ¾ cent lower ($3.92 ¼), Dec 24 ½ cents lower ($4.09) & March 24 ¼ cents lower ($4.25 ¼)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 10 ½ cents lower ($5.09 ¼), Dec 8 ¾ cents lower ($5.22) & March 7 ½ cents lower ($5.37)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 688.9 K T. vs. 350-550 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat Progress – Harvested – 89% vs. 90% expected vs. 96% 5-year average

Weekly Spring Wheat Condition & Progress – 69% GE (-4%) vs. 72% expected vs. 75% year ago – Harvested – 8% vs. 11% expected vs. 30% 5-year average

USDA Wheat Report – Acres ran unchanged – Yield increases 1.6 bpa – Production increases 59 million bu. – Total usage increases 40 million bu. – US carryout increases 14 million bu. – World carryout decreases 1.04 M T.

Yes, the wheat report had a bearish look to it. Was it as bearish as the closes suggested; probably not. What pressured prices the most, I feel, was the corn market. Many involved in the wheat market were thinking major feeding of wheat and with this corn report that idea should be tempered.

I’m sure the break in prices will keep cash wheat movement slow. Unfortunately I don’t see prices getting any better. Over the last number of days I’ve been comparing the price action to what we saw one year ago. After the initial break prices leveled off and rallies of stature were few and far between. I’m pretty much expecting the same for this year.

The bottom line is that wheat prices remain firmly entrenched in a solid looking down channel. If that changes it’s because prices started to move sideways; just don’t see any sustainable rallies at this point in time.

Daily Support & Resistance for 08/13

Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.72 ($4.67) – $4.83

Dec KC Wheat: $4.05 (?) – $4.14


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