Sept Chgo Wheat closed 9 ¾ cents higher ($5.04 ¼), Dec 9 ¾ cents higher ($5.20 ½) & March 9 ¾ cents higher ($5.36)
Sept KC Wheat closed 8 ¾ cents higher ($4.96 ½), Dec 8 ½ cents higher ($5.21 ½) & March 7 ¾ cents higher ($5.39 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 300.0 K T. old crop vs. 150-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected
European wheat futures once again attack recent season’s highs but can quite get into new high ground. That left US wheat futures firm but still range bound. Weekly export sales were nothing special but better vs. the feeble numbers we saw the previous week. As much as I would like to think the USDA laid out a bullish World Supply-Demand report the US market will continue to take its cue from overseas. As much as the US markets try to stay in lockstep with the overseas markets net changes the strength in the US Dollar works to keep us uncompetitive in the World’s export markets.
I see no changes in the interior cash wheat markets or in the export markets. Chgo spreads had been strong prior to Wednesday, softened noticeably on Wednesday and ran mostly steady today. Since mid-April the Sept/March KC spread has been a trading range affair from 45 cents under to 36 cents under. We are current favoring the low side.
I know I’m beginning to sound like a broken record but the US wheat market has no mind of its own as it continues to follow the European market. With that said the European market continues to flirt with price levels not seen since the end of 2015. I get the impression that the European market is flirting with “dynamic”. If you want to see “dynamic” in the Chgo futures market we need to see nearby futures trade above $5.55. Until then we’ll just be a follower. Get Sept Chgo wheat above $5.15 with conviction we can trade up to the mid low $5.30’s with little problem. $4.80 continues to be interim support.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/20
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.95 – $5.15
Sept KC Wheat: $4.88 – $5.07
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.