Dec Chgo Wheat closed 1 ½ cents lower ($5.07 1/4), March 1 cent lower ($5.23) & July unchanged ($5.42 ¾)
Dec KC Wheat closed ½ cent higher ($5.04 ¾), March ¼ cent lower ($5.27 ¾) & July ¼ cent higher ($5.48 ¾)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 327.1 K T. vs. 350-550 K T. expected
Weekly Winter Wheat Progress & Condition – Planted – 84% vs. 86% expected vs. 90% 5-year average – Emerged – 70% vs. 77% 5-year average – Condition – 51% GE (-2%) vs. 54% expected vs. 55% year ago
Flat price wheat goes into a consolidation mode. A weaker US Dollar lends support but weaker global prices act as a deterrent. Weekly export inspections were nothing to write home about. As much as I would like to think interim lows are in place I’m not sure the market currently has enough fundamental support to sustain a move higher at this time. I’m trying to look ahead to Thursday’s USDA Supply-Demand update for something that could get us going but as of this writing I’m not finding anything. If I had to guess what could get us going higher it would be a noticeably lower US Dollar. What could cause that to happen – probably something out of the midterm elections.
Day to day changes on advertised wheat basis levels run quiet. If I had to pick a trend it’s steady to better. Export values for the SRW and HRW continue to show a firm tone. Chgo spreads had been rallying most of last week; they gave some back today with consolidating price action. KC spreads continue to inch tighter. Last week’s strength in the Chgo spreads was all about cancelling deliverable receipts (SRW). Over the weekend I was told that some deliverable Wichita receipts were cancelled (HRW).
As much as I would like to believe US wheat prices have the potential to move higher I can’t help but notice how the price action stumbles as we challenge the low side of suspected minor resistance. I’ll be patient and wait for my inter-day technical readings to tell me when to buy. As of this writing it’s somewhere in the mid-high $4.90’s for Chgo Dec wheat and the mid-$4.90’s for KC Dec wheat.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/06
Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.96 – $5.14
Dec KC Wheat: $4.92 – $5.10
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