Dec Chgo Wheat closed 12 cents lower ($5.07 ¾), March 8 ¾ cents lower ($5.17 ¾) & July 6 ¼ cents lower ($5.35 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closed 7 cents lower ($4.86 ½), March 6 cents lower ($5.09 ½) & July 4 ¼ cents lower ($5.35 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 342.1 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected
Weekly Winter Wheat Progress & Condition – Planted – 89% vs. 90% expected vs. 94% 5-year average – Emerged – 77% vs. 83% 5-year average – 54% GE vs. 51% expected vs. 54% year ago
Nearby Chgo wheat futures give back 2/3 of what they gained on Monday. Deliverable certs are now down to 10 in Chgo; still sitting at 232 in KC. As much as I expected something to be given back vs. Monday’s gains I did not think we’d give back as much as we did. Thank you very much to the dramatic break in crude oil. If delivery registrations stay at just 10 or less we will see a delivery game/squeeze against the Chgo contract. Weekly export inspections were once again nothing to write home about. One would think inspections should start picking up given the recent increase in sales. I find it a bit ironic that on Monday when wheat futures gave us a strong rally the value of the US Dollar was quite strong vs. today the US Dollar was rather soft.
The interior cash wheat markets remain quiet but with a firm bias. Cash wheat movement remains slight at best. Chgo spreads gave back some of what they gained yesterday. KC spreads never saw the big improvement Chgo has seen but they too were soft today in response to the flat price selling.
KC prices are in the midst of some rather severe support testing as they are now within shouting distance of the contract lows registered last December; $4.78 ¼. The Chgo picture is nowhere as weak looking. My question now is “who comes to whom”? My thought is KC should tighten up to Chgo. If it doesn’t we could have one real ugly mess on our hands.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/14
Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.00 ($4.96) – $5.14
Dec KC Wheat: $4.79 – $4.96
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