Dec Chgo Wheat closed ½ cent lower ($4.97 ½), March 5 cents higher ($5.11 ½) & July 6 ¾ cents higher ($5.26 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closed 8 ½ cents higher ($4.67), March 8 ¾ cents higher ($4.92 ¼) & July 8 cents higher ($5.17 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Short covering led by the KC market as the discount to Chgo attracts some bottom pickers. There is also some rumor mongering going on about maybe some US HRW being involved in some Mideast business. Other are saying no as freight out of the US continues to be a deterrent. The bottom line was KC had a modest degree of flat price oversold (as well on the inter-market spreads) and today’s midday weakness in the US Dollar was enough rationale to sustain the early short covering.
The interior SRW cash market continues to be featureless. The same hold true with its respective export market. Dec loses noticeably on the spread ahead of first notice day. March forward spreads were also soft due to the profit taking in the long Chgo/short KC spreads. The interior HRW cash market continues to show a firm tone. Its respective export market shows offers but no bids. Nearby spreads, March forward, has a bit of bullish bias due to the flat price short covering.
The Chgo market has moved into a minor sideways trend as it sits just atop the support made last December, January. I’m not reading anything into this other than experience tells me not to chase short term extremes. The KC market attained a modest degree of oversold, both flat price and on its inter-market spreads. This market could easily give us some bouncing while Chgo sits still. For the time being there is no need to sell further weakness here.
Daily Support & Resistance for 11/29
Mch Chgo Wheat: $5.06 – $5.18
Mch KC Wheat: $4.85 – $5.00
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