July Chgo Wheat closed 12 ¾ cents higher ($4.82 ½), Sept 12 ¾ cents higher ($4.84 ½) & Dec 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.01 ¼)
July KC Wheat closed 7 ¼ cents higher ($4.70 ¼), Sept 7 ¼ cents higher ($4.81 ¼) & Dec 7 cents higher ($5.05 ¾)
Highlights of the USDA Wheat Supply-Demand Report – US Old Crop – lowered total usage by 19 million bu. – increased carryout by 20 million bu. – US New Crop – increased carryin 20 million bu. – increased production 54 million bu. – increased domestic usage 10 million bu. – increased exports 25 million bu. – increased carryout by 39 million bu. – World Old Crop – lowered total usage by 1.43 M T. – increased carryout by 1.13 M T. – World New Crop – increased carryin 1.13 M T. – lowered production 8.43 M T. – lowered total usage 2.03 M T. – lowered carryout 5.28 M T.
The USDA wheat report was all about the World numbers as the domestic data came in a just a touch higher than expected. World supply came in dramatically lower than expected and that is what supported our futures’ markets. Of the major suppliers to the World only the US had a higher production number. The “major exporters” production as a whole was down 6.4 M T.
Interior cash wheat markets are quiet while maintaining recent firmness. Export prices seem to be softening. Bull spreads were working in Chgo with the rally in the flat price while KC spreads only saw fractional improvement.
KC prices manage to hold at the early July lows. Chgo scores an inside day of Wednesday. The overall price flow continues to be rather iffy looking. The World data suggests limited downside. With KC holding the July lows a case can be made for the development of a minor trading range affair between $4.70 and $5.10 Chgo is holding the support that was established back in February; it can rally back to the $5.05 level with very little effort.
Daily Support & Resistance for 07/13
Sept Chgo Wheat: $4.76 – $4.97
Sept KC Wheat: $4.74 – $4.94
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.