Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

Sept Soybeans closed 41 cents lower ($14.94), Nov 42 cents lower ($14.12 ¼) & Jan 41 ¼ cents lower ($14.19)

Sept Meal closed $12.5 lower ($452.2), Oct $12.7 Lower ($410.6) & December $12.8 lower ($405.1)

Sept Bean Oil closed 59 pts lower ($68.94), Oct 86 pts lower ($67.44) & December 98 pts lower ($66.99)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 744.5 K T. vs. 300-850 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 58% GE vs. 58% expected vs. % year ago – Blooming – 93% vs. 93% 5-year ave – Setting Pods – 74% vs. 77% 5-year ave

Anticipation of better weather to help soybean pod filling along with weaker than expected Chinese economic data had November soybeans trading as much as 68 cents lower, Dec meal $18.0 lower and Dec bean oil 285 pts lower in the early going on Monday. As the day went on Nov bean were able to bounce almost 34 cents, Dec meal only $6.0 while Dec bean oil was able to rally nearly 260 pts off of its early lows. Bean oil’s rally back came on the coattails of a friendly looking NOPA crush report that featured lower than expected stocks. Soybeans’ bounce off of its early lows came amidst chatter around crop conditions that are expected to show another decline. Weather forecasts call for moderating temps this week with last night’s western rainfall dissipating as it moves east, southeast.

The interior soybean processor basis reads steady to easier while interior locations involved with export appear to be taking a nose-dive. The midday Gulf posting saw bids firming and offers weakening vs. Friday afternoon’s posting. The Sept/Nov bean spread has become quite volatile and will probably stay that way as we transition from old crop to new crop. The Nov forward soybean spreads show additional amounts of carry being added to the price structure. Watch the Gulf basis for signs of the soon to be harvested Delta beans moving to that location.

It’s August and that means what kind of moisture will the nation’s soybean crop see for its final pod-filling stage. I can’t help but notice that when the soybean market rallies it comes in a grinding type fashion and when it breaks it is nothing short of vicious. I can’t view that type of price action as friendly. I’m still viewing the recent flip-flop motion in the soybean meal market as bearish. Soybean oil shows room to sell off but with the ongoing campaign for bio-diesel it should be the least weak of the two product markets.

Daily Sport & Resistance – 08/16

Nov Beans: $14.26 – $14.80

Dec Meal: $406.0 – $430.0 (?) 

Dec Bean Oil: $66.00 – $72.00

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