Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 13 cents lower ($6.26 ¾), Dec 14 cents lower ($6.28) & March 13 ¼ cents lower ($6.35 ¾)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 538.4 K T. vs. 475-800 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – % GE vs. 56% expected vs. % year ago – Silking – 94% vs. 97% 5-year ave – Dough Stage – 62% vs. 65% 5-year ave – Dented – 16% vs. 20% 5-year ave

Anticipation of better weather coming in to help finish the corn crop and weaker than expected Chinese economic data has Dec corn trading as much as 24 cents lower in the early going Monday morning. as the day went on prices were able to bounce as much as 13 cents before settling down 14 cents on the day. The bounces were enabled by a slight rebound in crude prices as well as reports China have a drought of their own. It seems the Yangtze River basis is under a drought. I’ve yet to see any agencies trimming the China corn yield. As prices were trying to rally back there was a fair amount of chatter as to the crop condition report this afternoon. Will the conditions in the eastern Corn Belt be able to offset the stressed conditions in the western Corn Belt? The average trade guess has the nation’s corn crop rating dropping to 56% GE a decline of 2% pts vs. last week. If the latest forecasts are any good corn crop conditions in the west should stabilize this coming week.

Most corn processors are reporting steady to slightly better basis levels while most river locations are reporting lower basis levels. The midday gulf posting showed slightly easier levels vs. Friday afternoon’s posting. Weekly corn export inspections were no big deal as they favored the low side of expectations. Sept corn managed to gain 1 cent on the Dec while Dec forward spreads were adding carry to the price structure.

Today’s lower settlement prices basically reversed Friday’s gains. With that said it suggests the recent rally in corn prices are starting to run out of steam. The rally hasn’t been negated but it will be if and when we see prices closing the $6.15 level. Going forward the trade will continue to monitor potential crop size and new to the mix the reported drought conditions in China.

Daily Support & Resistance – 08/16

Dec Corn: $6.15 – $6.45

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