Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Sept Corn closed 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.40 ¾), Dec 1 ¼ cents lower ($3.54 ¼) & March 1 ½ cents lower ($3.67 ¼)

October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.006 cents a gallon higher ($1.310) & Nov $0.006 cents a gallon higher ($1.316)

USDA announces 651.67 K T. of corn sold to Mexico – 590.82 K T. for 2019-20 – 60.85 K T. for 2020-21

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 590.0 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 55% GE (-3%) vs. 58% expected vs. 68% year ago – Dough Stage – 89% vs. 97% 5-year average – Dented – 55% vs. 77% 5-year average – Mature – 11% vs. 24% 5-year average

Flat price corn struggles to consolidate after once again registering new contract lows. I would hate to think how low corn prices would have gone today without Chgo wheat rallying 15 cents off of its earlier in the day low. Weekly corn export inspections were deemed no big deal despite being at the high side of expectations. Cheaper corn can be had from both SA and Ukraine. Weather forecasts continue to be void of any calls for an early frost/freeze as of this writing. Looking ahead to Thursday’s production supply/demand update – not much change is expected on the supply side of the equation as condition ratings have held mostly steady since the last report (prior to today’s ratings) – the old crop carryout/new crop carryin is expected to increase slightly – not sure if the USDA is willing to make any changes to the new crop demand data.

Despite talk that some producers may be clearing out old crop stocks in preparation of the new crop processor bids run unchanged and interior river bids move higher. The Gulf too moved higher at its midday posting.  Corn spreads ran mixed upfront; Sept loses to Dec while Dec gains fractionally on the March. Spreads went downhill March forward. The 2019-20 crop year was a noticeable loser to the 2020-21 crop year.

New contract lows coupled with new contract low closes tells it all. As of this writing I’m not sure there is anything out there that will turn this market around anytime soon; I’m just hoping for some extended consolidation. Hopefully tonight’s crop ratings will provide that. As I mentioned earlier I doubt the USDA will give the bulls anything to hang their hats on with Thursday’s report. I did see a story earlier today (not personally confirmed) that NASS will not give us any noticeable changes in harvested acres until the January final production report. It has been my contention that harvested acres will be the wild card to this year’s production. If we are not going to see any changes from the USDA in this regard until January it’s going to be a long autumn.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/10

Dec Corn: $3.50 – $3.60    

March Corn: $3.63 – $3.73

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