Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

September Soybeans closed unchanged ($8.45), Nov unchanged ($8.57 ¾) & Jan unchanged ($8.72)

September Soybean Meal closed $1.3 higher ($288.5), Oct $1.1 higher ($290.4) & Dec $1.0 higher ($294.0)

September Soybean Oil closed 22 pts lower ($28.26), Oct 20 pts lower ($28.26) & Dec 20 pts lower ($28.45)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 906.0 K T. vs. 700 K – 1.200 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 55% GE (unch) vs. 55% expected vs. 68% year ago – Setting Pods – 92% vs. 99% 5-year average

Soybeans close unchanged as they are caught between steady to firm meal prices and soft bean oil prices. Late last week I started to hear about low pod counts in selected areas with only 2 beans per pod. Granted this is not reflective of the national level; at least not yet. The problem continues to be the lack of demand. A short crop without demand becomes a bigger crop. I’m hearing some additional chatter about the dryness in the northern reaches of Brazil. This came into the conversation last week. Sept 15th is Brazil’s “go” date for soybean planting so even though it’s early we’ll start to watch the weather down there.

The processor basis for soybeans sees little change vs. late last week. The interior river basis appears to be under renewed pressure. The Gulf basis has no friends. Soybean spreads ran steady upfront but gradually lost ground as one went forward. Offers to sell cash meal ran steady with late last week. Meal spreads were fractionally firmer upfront; mixed as one went forward.

Despite finishing unchanged the grind lower for soybeans continue. New lows, by minor amounts, were seen for soybeans and soybean meal on Monday. Yes, the meal market finished higher after registering new lows for the move the overall price action does not offer the volatility one would expect if we are to reject current levels. Looking ahead to the USDA report on Thursday; I’m not expecting any noticeable changes for either supply or demand. The old crop carryout/new crop carryin may come down a bit due to better than expected old crop exports. Other than that I’m not holding my breath.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/10

Nov Soybeans: $8.50 – $8.67

Dec Soybean Meal: $291.0 – $298.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $28.05 – $28.85

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.