Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 5 ¼ cents higher ($3.74), March 4 ½ cents higher ($3.86) & July 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.01 ¼)

October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.042 cents a gallon higher ($1.398) & Nov $0.036 cents higher ($1.397)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 421.8 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 55% GE (unch) vs. 54% expected vs. 69% year ago – Dough Stage – 93% vs. 98% 5-year average – Dented – 68% vs. 87% 5-year average – Mature – 18% vs. 39% 5-year average – Harvested – 4% vs. 4% expected vs. 7% 5-year average

Flat price corn starts higher Sunday night on the coattails of the sharply higher crude oil market. The balance of the night session was spent backing and filling the initial rally. The day session brings us a resumption of buying sparked by the WH’s proposal to further boost the bio-fuel mandate for 2020 beyond what was proposed last week. The new proposal would mandate bio-fuel blending up to 22.4 billion gallons. Adding to the day’s buying is the idea that the corn crop is not quite as healthy as last week’s USDA production numbers may have suggested. For what it is worth crop conditions are expected to fade further on this afternoon’s condition report. Additionally this afternoon’s progress report will act as a reminder as to just how late the crop is this year. Offsetting some of that is the lack of any frost/freeze in the forecasts.

Interior cash corn markets (basis) are steady to easier. The thought is that the recent rally is attracting some movement; I’m not sure all that much is moving. The Gulf basis is steady to slightly softer at its midday posting. Corn spreads did a show a friendlier bias. I’m thinking the friendlier bias is due to speculator short covering. Weekly export inspections came in at the low end of expectations.

Corn flat price charts look strong suggesting the next upside target is something closer to the $3.80 level (Dec). If we can get prices through that level (with conviction) then we’ll look at the August 12th -13th gap, $3.88 to $3.92 ¾. Support for the time being is the mid to low $3.60’s.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/17

Dec Corn: $3.70 – $3.80    

March Corn: $3.82 – $3.92

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