Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¼ cents higher ($4.88 ¾) March 5 ¾ cents higher ($4.95. ¼) & July 5 ½ cents higher ($5.03)

December KC Wheat closed 9 ¼ cents higher ($4.09), March 8 ¾ cents higher ($4.22 ¾) & July 7 ¾ cents higher ($4.42 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed 3 ½ cents higher ($5.09), March 3 ¼ cents higher ($5.23 ¾) & July 3 cents higher ($5.46)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 459.2 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat Progress – Planted – 8% vs. 8% expected vs. 12% 5-year average

Weekly Spring Wheat Progress – Harvested – 76% vs. 82% expected vs. 93% 5-year average

Flat price wheat continues to hold on to its recent firming price action. Ongoing dryness in Argentina and Australia is most commonly talked about. I am starting to hear that parts of Western Europe and the Black Sea wheat winter wheat areas are drying suggesting a possible delay to fall planting. The quality of what’s left in the spring harvest has its quality being questioned given all of the recent rain in that area. Weekly wheat export inspections were nothing to write home about.

Advertised interior basis levels for standard protein wheat run unchanged. The Gulf basis too runs unchanged. Actual demand, as far as I’m concerned remains nothing special. Spreads in Chgo ran mixed while KC spreads had a fractional bullish bias.

$5.00 to $5.10 should be viewed as formidable resistance for Dec Chgo wheat. Dec KC wheat keeps banging off of the suspected $4.10 resistance level. The Dec KC/Chgo inter-market wheat spread has gone quiet at contract lows. I keep looking at the world pile of wheat and thinking I should be selling rallies as the entire major world exporters are vying for market share. Historically that’s not friendly.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/17

Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.80 – $4.96

Dec KC Wheat: $4.00 – $4.13 (?)

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