Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 2 ½ cents higher ($3.73 ¼), March 2 ½ cents higher ($3.84 ¼) & July 2 ½ cents higher ($3.97 ¾)

October Chgo Ethanol closed $0.013 cents a gallon higher ($1.375) & Nov $0.015 cents higher ($1.375)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 233.9 K T. vs. 400-700 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 57% GE (+2%) vs. 55% expected vs. 69% year ago – Dough Stage – 96% vs. 100% 5-year average – Dented – 79% vs. 94% 5-year average – Mature – 29% vs. 57% 5-year average – Harvested – 7% vs. 9% expected vs. 11% 5-year average

It was a quiet trade for corn on Monday (just a 3 ½ cent range) but it was quietly higher. I think the corn market got most of its strength from the soybean market as it appears the China/US trade negotiations are back on vs. Friday’s thinking that they were off. New news was slight. Weekly export inspections were rather puny. I don’t think there has been enough harvesting going on to give anyone any special insight to yields. Most of the “computers” out there continue to suggest yields lower vs. what the USDA has been alluding to. A good part of the central Corn Belt is expected to have a wet bias for the near term keeping any harvest ready corn in the field. There is some frost talk for the Northern Plains by mid next week.

The interior corn basis, for the most part, runs mixed to lower vs. one week ago. The Ohio River is down 9 cents, Burns Harbor is 3 cents better, Lincoln, NE 5 cents lower, Decatur, IL 5 cents lower, Cedar Rapids 4 cents lower, Toledo unchanged, Seneca, IL 3 cents better, Savana, IL unchanged, Davenport 3 cents lower, Linden, IN unchanged and Council Bluffs, IA unchanged. The Gulf reads about 5 cents higher. Corn spreads on the day run steady out to July while the old crop new crop spreads gain a cent of so. Overall corn spreads have been grinding tighter since the 1st of the month. Cash corn movement remains not much to write home about but then again demand hasn’t been much to write home about.

The flat price bias continues to show a firming trend. Closes over $3.75 (Dec) will suggest a test of the $3.80 level. Support appears to be $3.65-$3.63. Based on what the CFTC had to say last Friday (as of last Tuesday, the 17th) the spec trade continues to be a decent sized short. Any further rally from current levels will be considered short covering.

The corn crop was rated better than expected this afternoon. We were reminded of just how far the crop is behind in its maturation rate. Which one of these crop indicators holds sway over Tuesday’s direction is the $64 K question – how do you see it?

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/24

Dec Corn: $3.69 ($3.66) – $3.75 ($3.78)    

March Corn: $3.80 ($3.77) – $3.86 ($3.89)

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.