Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 4 ½ cents lower ($4.77 ¼), March 4 ¾ cents lower ($4.83 ¾) & July 5 ¼ cents lower ($4.93)

December KC Wheat closed 1 cent lower ($4.04), March 1 ¼ cents lower ($4.17 ¼) & July ¾ cent lower ($4.37 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed 9 ¾ cents higher ($5.54 ¼), March 9 ¾ cents higher ($5.65 ¾) & July 7 ¼ cents higher ($5.81 ½)

Overnight Egypt buys 300.0 K T. of wheat – 240.0 K T. Russian, 60.0 K T. French – US wheat was not offered

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop (2019-20) vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop (2020-21) vs. none expected

It’s a tale of the three varieties – Mpls wheat (HRS) continues to move higher as fears of quality/quantity damage for the remainder of the spring wheat harvest due to excessive rainfall – Chgo wheat spends day at lower levels due to a general lack of business – KC wheat (HRW) fluctuates back and forth around unchanged as it gets caught between the Mpls (higher) and Chgo (lower) markets. The overall news is mixed from the World markets. Russia talks about a larger crop size; 78.0 M T. vs. previous estimate of 75.0 M T. vs. the latest from the USDA at 72.5 M T. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange in Argentina talks about the potential for a record sized wheat crop at 21.0 M T. The Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina is taking the other side as it talks about drought and frost impacting its wheat crop. Ukraine talks about it being too dry to plant winter wheat. Last but not least; the strength of the US Dollar continues to inhibit the potential for US competitiveness in the World’s export circles.

Advertised wheat basis levels for standard protein wheat run unchanged. For that matter so does the export basis for both HRW and SRW. Intra-market spreads run fractionally better in Chgo despite the lower flat price. KC intra-market spreads run fractionally mixed. I have to wonder if what’s happening in Mpls will eventually have Chgo losing its strangle hold on KC as both KC and Mpls are “hard” varieties. KC wheat has been steadily losing to Chgo since May/June of 2018.

Flat Price Chgo wheat appears to rolling over from the rally that started on Sept 1st. KC has similar appearance even though its rally wasn’t quite as stout when compared to Chgo; KC rallied 33 cents from its Sept 1st low while Chgo rallied 42 cents from its Sept 1st low.  For what it is worth (and I don’t trade Mpls wheat) Dec Mpls wheat is 70 cents off of Sept 1st low and I see trendline resistance coming in at the mid-$5.60’s.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/26

Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.72 (?) – $4.87

Dec KC Wheat: $3.98 – $4.12

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