March Corn closed ¾ cent lower ($3.80), July ¾ cent lower ($3.95 ¾) & Dec ½ cent lower ($4.03)
March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.006 cents a gallon lower ($1.307) & April $0.004 cents lower ($1.331)
Weekly Ethanol Grind for Week Ending February 1st – 967 K bpd vs. 1.012 million bpd previous week – Stocks – 23.9 million bbls vs. 24.0 million bbls previous week
Its called the waiting game – waiting to see what the USDA has to say on Friday as to the state of our grain markets. I’m not sure the daily trade in corn can get much lower; just a 1 ¾ cents range in March and May, 2 cents in July. Tighter daily ranges were seen in the forward contracts. New news impacting the corn market was nowhere to be seen on Wednesday. Tomorrow is normally weekly export sales day. Yes – we’ll see weekly export sales but it will be for the week ending December 27th. As far as the Friday reports are concerned – Quarterly stocks will be accurate, Final production data (yield & harvested acres) will be current – I’m not sure how accurate the demand data will be given the USDA will still be playing catch-up as to sales. Weekly inspections are up to date. Adding to all of this I believe CONAB will be updating Brazilian corn production. This will be their first real estimate of the 2nd season crop.
Interior cash corn markets (basis) still show a mixed look. Processors’ basis appears to be steady to easier while river markets continue to show a firm tone. The Gulf posting at mid-morning is the best I have seen in some time; 1-2 cents better from Tuesday night’s posting. Corn spreads ran fractionally better March to May, May loses fractionally to July and old crop loses to new crop.
Waiting for the USDA on Friday! I’m not sure much more needs to be said as the technical look has not changed; a broad sideways that features a succession of lower highs and higher lows. March corn has now traded 10 days in row between $3.75 ¾ and $3.81 ½. The last Supply-Demand report we saw was on Dec 11th. Since then the funds have been sellers of 8.5 K contracts of corn (as of today). In between these dates we seen the funds sell as much as 30 K and then buy it all back. In mid-January they were probably their longest. Since then funds have sold 10 K. The bottomline – we sit and wait for the USDA on Friday. I still think the trade wants to have a friendly bias going into these reports.
Daily Support & Resistance for 02/07
Mch Corn: $3.77 ½ – $3.83 ½ July Corn: $3.93 ½ – $3.99 ½
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