Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 16 ½ cents higher ($3.88), March 15 ¾ cents higher ($3.99 ½) & July 12 cents higher ($4.08 ½)

October Chgo Ethanol closes $0.095 cents a gallon higher ($1.572) & Nov $0.075 cents higher ($1.484)

USDA announces 120 K T. of corn sold to Mexico

Sept 1st Quarterly Corn Stocks – 2.114 billion bu. vs. 2.428 billion expected

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 399.7 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 57% GE (unch) vs. 57% expected vs. 69% year ago – Dented – 88% vs. 98% 5-year average – Mature – 43% vs. 73% 5-year average – Harvested – 11% vs. 14% expected vs. 19% 5-year average

It was all “good” in the corn market on Monday. The Sunday night trade brought us steady to firm price action from the idea that recent excessive rainfall over the weekend in the central, west central areas of the Corn Belt would not only slow harvest but also potentially hamper both yield and quality. The announced export sale to Mexico helped offset the weak looking export inspections. At mid-morning the Quarterly Stocks figure came in much lower than anyone had anticipated and that vaulted prices to levels not seen since the August production report break. This lower than expected Stocks figure now puts more importance on just what we have out there to be harvested which to date is an unknown as yield ideas are running decent to higher than expected. I have to think a good portion of today’s buying was spec short covering that also tied in to month-end and quarter-end position squaring.

Interior cash corn markets (basis) ran steady to easier. I have to think it the weakening basis is tied to the anticipation of harvest (some clearing out of old crop stocks) as well as a weak looking export program. The Gulf continues to ease as well. Bull spreads were working due to the short covering prompted by the lower than expected Stocks report; most notable were the old crop/new crop spreads. It will be interesting to see if today’s rally attracts further movement.

On August 12th, 13th a gap was created from $3.88 to $3.92 ¾ (Dec). Today’s high got into that gap by a ¼ cent. Depending on the outcome of today’s condition and progress report we can easily further today’s rally. Everyone involved realizes the crop is late and harvesting is expected to be slow going based on current forecasts. Trade ideas have the crop maintaining its current condition. Filling the gap will be the initial target. If the rally continues the next target will be the low $4.00’s.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/01

Dec Corn: $3.83 – $3.93    

March Corn: $3.94 ½ – $4.04 ½  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.