Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 7 cents higher ($4.84 ¼), March 6 ½ cents higher ($4.90 ¼) & July 5 ½ cents higher ($4.98 ½)

December KC Wheat closed 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.08 ¼), March 4 ¼ cents higher ($4.21 ½) & July 3 ¼ cents higher ($4.40 ½)

December Mpls Wheat closed 5 ½ cents lower ($5.48 ¾), March 3 ¾ cents lower ($5.62) & July ¼ cent higher ($5.81 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 283.1 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

As far as I’m concerned the biggest feature to today’s wheat trade was the some re-alignment within the inter-market wheat spreads. In recent days the Mpls market had been noticeably gaining on Chgo and KC. Today looked like it was just some profit taking on those spreads. The story behind the spring wheat market really hasn’t changed; too wet in areas that are left to be harvested in the US Northern Plains and what’s left to be harvested in the Canadian Prairies. Adding insult to injury; Alberta and Saskatchewan are forecasted to see their first snowstorm of the season over the next number of days. Argentina and Australia continue to be plagued with ongoing dryness. Weekly export sales were disappointing. I have to think that as long as the US Dollar stays strong US wheat export sales will stay rather feeble looking.

Advertised interior basis levels for standard protein don’t change. For that matter advertised Gulf basis levels don’t change either. After recent attempts at easing Chgo spreads have moved back into their longer term uptrends. KC spreads too continue to grind higher. It sure isn’t export demand that’s keeping these spreads firm. I have to think it’s more about slow producer selling coupled with the poorer quality with this past season’s SRW crop.

Chgo’s flat price trade throws a minor hook reversal at us after being the verge of rolling over the past two days. KC has similar pattern. I question how much we can rally from here given the crop production update on Monday as well as the large amount of World wheat that is on hand. Adding to that is the strength of the US Dollar. The strength of the US Dollar just kills the potential for better US export business. Tomorrow is Friday; Monday is report day as well as month end and quarter end. It won’t kill me to sit on my hands for another couple of days.

Daily Support & Resistance for 09/27

Dec Chgo Wheat: $4.80 – $4.94

Dec KC Wheat: $4.02 – $4.14

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