Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 3 ¾ cents lower ($3.87 ¼), March 3 ¼ cents lower ($3.99 ½) & July 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.13)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.018 cents a gallon lower ($1.419) & Dec $0.004 cents lower ($1.397)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 531.7 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Condition & Progress – 56% GE (+1%) vs. 54% expected vs. 68% year ago – Mature – 86% vs. 97% 5-year average – Harvested – 30% vs. 34% expected vs. 47% 5-year average

Beware of the Sunday night rallies. It may be my imagination but it seems the Sunday night rallies rarely hold. We saw easier prices to start and then rallied to set the day’s highs. The day session brought us lower prices and stayed that way for the balance of the day. Weekly export inspections were deemed no big deal but then nothing big was expected. The lack of corn exports has dogged this market for some time. As much as the trade would like to believe we have lower production coming at us on the November 8th I’ll ask “what do we do in the meantime?”  My answer to that is a sideways to easier trade in the short term and a more sideways longer term.

Interior corn basis levels remain mixed. Versus one week ago – the Ohio River 6 cents better, Burns Harbor 2 cents better, Lincoln, NE 5 cents better, Decatur, IL 2 cents easier, Cedar Rapids, IA 12 cents lower, Toledo, OH 10 cents better, Seneca, IL unchanged, Savanna, IL 3 cents better, Davenport, IA 15 cents better, Linden, IN 10 cents better and Council Bluffs 5 cents easier. The Gulf is running 8-9 cents better vs. one week ago. Nearby corn spreads have been easing for the past week or so while further out corn spreads have been easing for about the past two weeks. I have to think the easiness in the spreads is all about the lack of demand as I don’t think all that much cash corn has been moving.

For the time being I get the impression the corn market is settling into a trading range affair between the mid-high $3.90’s and the mid-high $3.70’s (Dec). Yes, we may have a lower crop size out there but the lack of demand (both domestic and export) is an offsetting issue.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/22

Dec Corn: $3.84 – $3.92    

March Corn: $3.96 – $4.04  

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.