Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed ¾ cent lower ($9.33 ¼), March ¼ cent lower ($9.59) & July ½ cent lower ($9.75 ¼)

December Soybean Meal closed $0.8 lower ($307.7), March $0.8 lower ($314.4) & July $0.8 lower ($321.8)

December Soybean Oil closed 12 pts higher ($30.48), March 12 pts higher ($30.96) & July 12 pts higher ($31.54)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.296 M T. vs. 900 K – 1.400 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Condition & Progress – 54% GE (unch) vs. 53% expected vs. 66% year ago – Dropping Leaves – 94% vs. 97% 5-year average – Harvested – 46% vs. 42% expected vs. 64% 5-year average

The soybean complex comes in lower Sunday night and quickly rallies. Weekend rhetoric on the US/China trade negotiations is getting “positive” remarks from both sides. Unfortunately this has not led to any new “announced” business despite the US administration suggesting ongoing buying from the Chinese. The overnight rally in both soybeans and soybean meal quickly faded once the day session started. Nov beans retraced the entire Sunday night rally while Dec meal made new lows vs. its Sunday lows. Dec bean oil went nowhere fast but did manage to hold onto it plus side gains due to inter-market spreading providing the support. Weekly soybean export inspections were quite solid looking but that was expected. I’m told that as we move forward weekly export inspections will begin to ebb away from recent big numbers.

The interior soybean basis continues to show a higher bias mostly from a lack of movement despite reports of decent harvest activity. The US producer will try and sit on his production until he knows more about “Phase One” between the US and China. All of the interior basis locations that I track all are reporting higher basis levels vs. one week ago. This holds true for the Gulf as well. Soybean spreads are showing only fractional changes on the day but the overall trend still appears to be sideways to lower. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the interior are such that buyers remain few and far between. The Gulf for soybean meal is steady while bids vs. offers remain about $9.00 wide. Soybean meal spreads ran mostly steady on the day.

It is my impression that the recent rally in the soybean market has stalled out. The inability of the soybean meal to sustain its recent attempt to advance is mostly responsible. As long as the meal market has trouble sustaining advances it will act as a weight around the soybean markets neck. For what it is worth it looks like the recent rally in soybean oil is stalling out as well. Until we know more about the crop size and the possible outcome of the US/China “Phase One” trade deal choppy almost sideways trading will be the near term MO.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/22

Nov Soybeans: $9.25 – $9.38

Dec Soybean Meal: $304.0 – $310.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.00 – $30.75

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.