Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 1 cent lower ($3.86 ¾), March 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.98) & July 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.10 ¼)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.019 cents a gallon higher ($1.450) & Dec $0.015 cents higher ($1.435)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 491.5 K T. old crop vs. 400-700 K T. expected – 91.4 K T. new crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected

Spinning wheels continue to go round and round meaning the corn market continues to go nowhere fast. Weekly export sales continue to disappoint. Cheaper corn can continue to be had out of SA and Ukraine. The only “plus” that I saw today were the bull spreads involving the Dec contract noticeably working. That can be tied to one of two things (if not both); November corn option expiration is tomorrow and there appears to be a fair amount of open interest in both the puts and calls ranging from $3.80 to $3.90 – I did see a number of corn trades at the Gulf for November and December. Otherwise it was a relatively slow day.

The interior corn basis continues to have a firm tone to it as producer sales appear to be lacking. Corn harvesting is happening in areas where soybeans may be done. Yield reports continue to run mixed meaning better than expected vs. worse than expected. The Gulf continues to exhibit a firm bias but that is mostly from slow movement not excessive demand. As I mentioned spreads involving the December contract were firm while the March forward spreads were pretty flat pooling. With the exception of the Dec 2019 contract the current crop year loses to the 2020/21 crop year.

Shear boredom best describes the corn market’s flat price trade. Near term trading ideas have not changed; the mid-high $3.70’s to the mid-high $3.90’s (Dec).

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/25

Dec Corn: $3.83 – $3.93    

March Corn: $3.94 – $4.04

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.