Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.16), March 4 ¾ cents lower ($5.21 ¼) & July 4 ¼ cents lower ($5.30 ¼)

December KC Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents lower ($4.19 ½), March 4 ¼ cents lower ($4.32 ¾) & July 5 ¼ cents higher ($4.50 ¼)

December Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents lower ($5.40), March 2 ½ cents lower ($5.53 ¾) & July 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.72)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 262.4 K T. old crop vs. 300-600 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Puny export sales coupled with a steady to slightly easier overseas market opened the door for another day of consolidation while still honoring the suggested downside reversal that occurred earlier this week. Australian wheat watchers continue to downgrade that crop.   Other than that it was slow news day. It will be interesting to see what the USDA has to say about the global wheat situation next month given the idea of a lower Aussie crop vs. a larger Russian crop.

Advertised basis levels for wheat, both for domestic use and for export run unchanged on the day. Chgo spreads ran steady to slightly easier while KC spreads ran slightly better. As we get closer to December the nearby spreads will be fun to watch given quality issues for SRW and whether or not HRW will be used to satisfy delivery obligations.

The flat price correction phase that started earlier this week continues. I’m not sure there needs to be much more said.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/25

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.14 (?) – $5.28

Dec KC Wheat: $4.16 (?) – $4.26 (?)

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