Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($3.86 ¼), March 1 ½ cents higher ($3.96) & July 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.08 ¾)

November Chgo Ethanol closed $0.012 cents a gallon lower ($1.445) & Dec $0.007 cents lower ($1.419)

Flat price corn catches a minor bid on Tuesday from a slow rate of harvesting. Forecasts for wintry weather to move through the Midwest will work to keep harvesting slow. Bull spreads are starting to reflect the slow farmer selling. I’m told that previously registered contracts for delivery are now being cancelled. Not that our demand is that good (its not) the slow pace of farmer selling is starting to offset. Adding to some of the higher price action are fears that the new regime in Argentina will soon enact export taxes which in turn could possibly shift some export demand back to the US.

The interior cash corn basis has taken on a mixed look depending upon location. The Ohio River is 5 cents better, Cedar Rapids 5 cents easier, Savanna, IL 2 cents better and Council Bluffs 2 cents lower. All other locations are running unchanged. The Gulf basis for corn continues to edge higher mostly from the slow cash movement. December corn was a noticeable gainer March forward while March forward spreads ran unchanged to fractionally better.

The trading range affair continues; support is the mid-high $3.70’s while resistance is the mid-high $3.90’s (Dec). Between now and November 8th (the USDA production update) I expect this range to hold. Range trading should consist of fading short term extremes not chasing them.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/30

Dec Corn: $3.84 – $3.90    

March Corn: $3.94 – $4.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.