Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

December Chgo Wheat closed ¼ cent lower ($5.11 ½), March ½ cent lower ($5.17 ½) & July ¾ cent lower ($5.27 ¼)

December KC Wheat closed 2 cents higher ($4.19), March 1 ½ cents higher ($4.31 ½) & July 1 ½ cents higher ($4.49 ¾)

December Mpls Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($5.25 ¾), March 1 ½ cents lower ($5.41) & July 1 cent lower ($5.58)

Egypt buys 235.0 K T. of wheat overnight – 115.0 K T. Ukraine, 60.0 K T. French, 60.0 K T. Romanian – Russian offers apparently were deemed too high

If I didn’t know better today’s trade in the Chgo wheat market was all about the overnight Egyptian tender; prices paid and who they bought from. They did go after the lowest four offerings. After those four there were a multitude of Russian offerings at slightly higher prices which Egypt balked at. Egypt did pay higher prices for the wheat they did buy and that did give us a midday rally but when it was learned they balked at the Russian offering prices drifted down to new lows for the day. For what it is worth European wheat prices also faded from their intra-day highs.

Advertised interior wheat basis levels don’t do a whole lot although I’m told cash wheat movement remains minimal. Gulf prices for HRW stay relatively firm while Gulf prices for SRW appear to be easing a bit. Chgo spreads saw some fractional improvement as did KC spreads.

Today’s lows for both Chgo and KC wheat represent the topside of minor support levels. As of this writing I would be a bit reluctant to press prices beyond to day’s lows without some sort of a decent bounce; something to the tune of 10-12 cents. If I did see prices move below today’s lows without bouncing first I would be tempted to do some short term buying.

Daily Support & Resistance for 10/30

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.06 – $5.18

Dec KC Wheat: $4.14 – $4.26

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.