Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

Dec Corn closed 4 ½ cents higher ($3.77 ¾), March 4 ½ cents higher ($3.86 ½) & July 3 ¾ cents higher ($3.98 ¾)

December Chgo Ethanol closed 0.012 cents a gallon lower ($1.433) & Jan $0.013 cents lower ($1.404)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 560.1 K T. vs. 350-600 K T. expected

Weekly Corn Crop Progress – Harvested – 66% vs. 68% expected vs. 85% 5-year average

Modest short covering is the feature in the corn market on Tuesday. Weekly corn export inspections were deemed as “okay”. Strength in the US wheat futures also lent support. Other than the modest short covering there was not a lot to today’s trade.

Cash corn markets continue to be firm from slow movement which turn buoys the nearby spreads; at least early in the day. Given the modest volatility in the nearby spread it would suggest the posturing has already started in anticipation of 1st Notice day two weeks from now. It wasn’t that long ago we had over 1000 corn tickets registered for delivery; now just over 200. Where did they all go; they went to locations that were not buying the corn previously anticipated.

Corn price charts are honoring suspected support levels; the low $3.70’s Dec. We know the spec/managed sector is a fair sized short in the futures market. What will prompt him to cover additional shorts remains to be seen unless technical considerations take over. Unfortunately I think we are a long way from that. Minimally Dec corn needs to close above last Friday’s high ($3.84) to spark a big rush of short covering.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/13

Dec Corn: $3.74 – $3.82     

March Corn: $3.80 (?) – $3.87

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.