Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

November Soybeans closed ¾ cent higher ($9.05 ¾), March ¼ cent lower ($9.30 ¼) & July ¼ cent higher ($9.53 ¾)

December Soybean Meal closed $1.7 higher ($302.3), March $1.9 higher ($307.6) & July $1.7 higher ($314.1)

December Soybean Oil closed 39 pts lower ($31.03), March 38 pts lower ($31.51) & July 35 pts lower ($32.11)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 1.331 M T. vs. 800 K – 1.600 M T. expected

Weekly Soybean Crop Progress – Harvested – 85% vs. 87% expected vs. 92% 5-year average

Soybeans appear dead in the water for the time being. Downside corrections in soybean oil vs. modest short covering in soybean meal keep soybean prices held in check. When was the last time you saw the lead soybean contract have just a 5 cent range for the entire day? The lack of volatility says it all; Jan at the money puts/calls implied volatility right around 10.9

Earlier today the US president was talking to the Economic Club of New York. He talked about how close the two sides (US & China) are to making a trade deal (Phase One) and how badly China wanted one. He said he would only accept a deal that is good the US and its workers. Lastly he said that if China doesn’t make a trade deal with the US he will substantially raise tariffs on Chinese imports. I don’t know how the Chinese will react to this last statement as they have said in the past they don’t like to be threatened.

Cash soybean movement continues to be minimal at best. Interior basis levels continue to show a firming tone. The Gulf basis moves up to new highs for its current move. Despite this spreads were dead in the water on Tuesday (just like the flat price).  Cash soybean meal offers are trying to improve but little impact is being seen in the meal spreads. Meal spreads have only shown minor improvement with the recent basis strengthening.

Soybeans and soybean meal are holding suspected minor support levels but that’s about all. The lackluster trade leaves a lot to be desired. Its unfortunate the soybean market is at the whim of the US president and his thoughts regarding the pending US/China trade deal. With that said positive remarks will keep the markets honoring suspected minor support levels while negative remarks will have prices grinding lower.

Daily Support & Resistance for 11/13

Jan Soybeans: $9.12 – $9.26

Dec Soybean Meal: $299.0 – $306.5

Dec Soybean Oil: $30.65 – $31.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.