Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March corn closed ½ cent lower ($3.86 ½), July ¾ cent lower ($3.98 ¾) & Dec ½ cent higher ($4.00)

January Chgo ethanol closed $0.012 cents a gallon lower ($1.357), Feb $0.012 cents lower ($1.379)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 1.709 M T. old crop vs. 1.200-2.000 M T. expected – 536.1 K T. new crop vs. 525-700 K T. expected

It was a quiet day for corn trading; just a 4-cent range; 2 cents of either side of unchanged. On the surface weekly old crop corn sales looked good but we must remember that approximately 1.200 M T. of these sales were previously reported through the USDA daily reporting system last week. That would suggest only 500 K T. of sales we did not know about; not a very good number especially when the trade is anticipating an improvement in US corn export sales due to the idea that corn sales out of Brazil will soon be slowing.

Not many changes are seen with the interior corn basis; Cedar Rapids down 2 cents and Council Bluffs up 2 cents. Overall the interior corn basis continues to show a firm undertone. The Gulf is mostly steady at its midday posting. Corn spreads ran mostly steady within the current crop year while old crop loses fractionally to the new crop.

As of this writing the short term looks at corn charts suggest a bit of downflagging from Tuesday’s highs. To keep the drive higher I must think the bull needs to be fed almost daily and today’s weekly export sales weren’t enough to do it. As far as I’m concerned, the closest/best looking support is the Sunday night opening gap higher. The gap gets filled at $3.81 ½ (March). The best-looking near-term resistance continues to be the low to mid $3.90’s.

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 20th

March Corn: $3.81 ½ – $3.92

July Corn: $3.94 – $4.05

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.