Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 4 cents lower ($9.24 ½), March 4 ¼ cents lower ($9.36 ¼) & July 3 ½ cents lower ($9.62)

January Soybean Meal closed $4.5 lower ($298.4), March $4.7 lower ($302.7) & July $4.0 lower ($309.6)

January Soybean Oil closed 36 pts higher ($33.79), March 35 pts higher ($34.07) & July 40 pts higher ($34.67)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 1.430 M T. old crop vs. 950 K – 1.400 M T. expected – 36.3 K T. new crop vs. 0-400 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 83.5 K T. old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 28.0 K T. old crop vs. 5-25 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

USDA announces 126.0 K T. of soybeans (old crop) sold to China

Weekly soybean export sales were solid looking (expected) while soybean meal export sales were nothing more than puny. Weekly soybean oil export sales were deemed good. Couple the bean oil sales with the higher palm prices and it explains the noticeable divergence between meal prices and bean oil prices. Southern Argentina has some dryness issues, but that concern remains minimal (so far). The tug-o-war between meal and bean oil prices kept soybeans on the defensive as the meal losses far outweighed the gains in bean oil; $470 lost in soybean meal vs. $210 gained in bean oil. The weather in Brazil remains conducive to a great crop.

Except for Savanna, IL’s soybean basis being 5 cents better all other locations that I track went unchanged on the day. Overall the tone of the interior soybean basis continues to be firm. The Gulf continues to be strong as well. The upfront soybean spreads were steady on the day while the old crop loses to the new crop. No changes are being seen with the interior soybean meal basis or at the Gulf. Meal spreads were fractionally mixed upfront while the nearby lose to the deferred.

You’ve heard me say it before; if you want to see sustained higher soybean prices you have to have support from the soybean meal market. Strong soybean oil prices will work to try and keep soybean prices alive but not much more than that. With a little bit of imagination soybean prices are downflagging from Tuesday’s highs. Soybean oil charts remain strong looking, but continuation weekly charts suggest $34.00 is good resistance. Last but least; I can’t believe what a dog the meal market is. $301.0 to $299.0 should be support for March meal if it is to be any good.

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 20th

March Soybeans: $9.30 – $9.45

March Soybean Meal: $301.0 – $306.0

March Soybean Oil: $33.40 – $34.40

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