Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March corn closed 1 cent higher ($3.88 ½), July ¾ cent higher ($4.01 ¼) & Dec ¾ cent higher ($4.02 ¾)

January Chgo ethanol closed $0.005 cents a gallon higher ($1.403), Feb $0.008 cents higher ($1.433)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 500 K – 1.200 M T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Flat price corn completes its 7th day of sideways price action just below its recent highs. March corn has traded between $3.90 ½ and $3.85 since last Tuesday the 17th. New news impacting the corn market remains slight. I continue to get the impression the trade continues to anticipate a better US export market as we move into the New Year. Additionally, the trade is anticipating a cut to production from last season’s crop when the USDA updates on January 10th.

The majority of the interior basis locations run unchanged. This holds true for the midday posting at the Gulf. The nearby corn spread, March/May, runs unchanged while the old crop gains fractionally on the new crop. Any producer corn that gets sold over the next few days will defer payment until after the New Year.

Flat price corn was kept under wraps today due to inter-market spreading, buying wheat vs. selling corn. Continued speculative short covering is the best support while the current lack of exports is resistance. As we move forward my thought is that speculative short covering will continue to support the market when it tries to sell off. Tomorrow is export sales day and the trade is leaning towards a decent number. Given what’s happening at the Gulf (not much) I don’t think I should hold me breath. The mid-low $3.80’s continues to show the best-looking technical support while the mid-$3.90’s shows the best near-term resistance.

Daily Support & Resistance for Dec 27th

March Corn: $3.84 – $3.93

July Corn: $3.97 – $4.06

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.