Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 1 ½ cents higher ($5.60 ¼), May 1 ½ cents higher ($5.63 ¼) & July 1 ½ cents higher ($5.65)

March KC Wheat closed ¾ cent lower ($4.85 ¼), May ½ cent lower ($4.93 ¾) & July unchanged ($5.01 ¼)

March Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents lower ($5.58 ¼), May 2 cents lower ($5.68 ¼) & July 2 cents lower ($5.75 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Flat price wheat starts the day like a ball of fire and then falls flat on its face. KC was the upside leader and then turned into the downside leader. At one point KC wheat was up nearly 11 cents and then finished fractionally lower on the day. The Chgo market was not as strong early but then not as weak late.  I have to wonder if recent basis improvement followed by the higher flat price attracted some farmer selling. The EU market continues to firm while the Russian market was closed for the day.

The basis for SRW in Toledo was easier while the basis for HRW in Wichita was better. Export basis for both varieties run unchanged. Chgo spreads were flat upfront while the nearby eased to the deferred. KC spreads ran fractionally easier all the way out to March of next year.

March KC wheat flirts with the $5.00 level ($4.96 ¾) and gets turned back down.  March Chgo gets to within 6 cents of its summer high and it too gets turned away. It should be noted that last summer’s best close for March Chgo wheat was $5.65 ¾ and today’s high was $5.67 ½. The last 2 out of 3 days we’ve seen strength early in the day only to see waves of profit taking follow. Price action such as this may be trying to suggest we’ve gone high enough for the near term.

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 3rd  

March Chgo Wheat: $5.51 – $5.65

March KC Wheat: $4.78 – $4.91

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