Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed ¼ cent lower ($3.84 ¼), July unchanged ($3.97 ¾) & Dec ¾ cent higher ($4.00 ¾)

February Chgo ethanol closed $0.018 cents a gallon lower ($1.335), March $0.017 cents lower ($1.355)

USDA announces 207.0 K T. of corn sold to Unknown for 2020/21 marketing year

CONAB – Brazil Corn Production Update – 98.711 M T. (26.617+70.936) vs. 98.409 M T. (Dec) vs. 100.046 M T. (25.647+73.178) year ago

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.062 million bpd vs. 1.066 previous week – Stocks – 22.5 million bbls vs. 21.0 million previous week

Weekly Corn Export Sales (Delayed until Friday) – old crop vs. 350-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

There wasn’t much of a corn trade today; just a 3-3 ¼ cent range. News of note; China suspends its plan to implement a nationwide gasoline blend containing 10% ethanol. Add this to yesterday’s news citing China not willing to expand its import quota of corn beyond 7.2 M T. What all of this suggests is that we cannot expect China to buy much US corn in the coming year. CONAB updated Brazilian corn production ideas this morning; production increased by 300 K T. vs. recent ideas of a cut due to the dry conditions in the Brazilian state of RGDS. If US corn exports are going to improve as we move forward they will have to come from other countries other than China. It does look like SA corn exports are winding down but so far US corn exports remain lacking. Today’s export announcement from the USDA involves the 2020/21 marketing year so not much help there. Those wanting to be bullish will continue to hang their hats on the USDA saying something bullish on Friday. I’m not holding my breath on that due to whatever cuts we see to production could be offset by declines in export. The weekly ethanol grind offered no help as the grind declined slightly while stocks were noticeably higher.

Interior cash corn markets, for the most part, still show a firm bias. The Ohio River improved 2 cents, Burns Harbor improved 3 cents, Seneca, IL improved 4 cents while Cedar Rapids, IA declined 2 cents. The Gulf still has a firm bias but did ease midday from last night’s posting. Corn spreads ran steady to fractionally easier within the old crop while old crop loses to the new crop.

If I didn’t know better the trade is willing to be long soybeans and wheat while selling corn against those longs. As of this writing the corn charts are not looking too positive given its inability to reverse the suggested interim sell signal that was registered on Monday. Despite the ominous look of the charts I still have the idea the trade will be respectful of the idea of a lower supply report from the USDA on Friday. With that said I believe the downside will be limited until we see what the USDA has to say on Friday.

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 9th    

March Corn: $3.81 ½ – $3.88

July Corn: $3.94 – $4.01 ½    

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