Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

January Soybeans closed 3 ¼ cents higher ($9.38 ¼), March 3 ¼ cents higher ($9.47 ¼) & July 2 ¾ cents higher ($9.72 ¼)

January Soybean Meal closed $0.5 higher ($296.9), March $0.5 higher ($301.8) & July $0.9 higher ($310.8)

January Soybean Oil closed 19 pts lower ($34.27), March 18 pts lower ($34.56) & July 19 pts lower ($35.17)

CONAB – Brazil Soybean Production Update – 122.25 M T. vs. 121.092 (Dec) vs. 115.030 (year ago)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales (Delayed until Friday) – old crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K t. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales (Delayed until Friday) – old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales (Delayed until Friday) – old crop vs. 0-25 K t. expected – new crop vs. none expected

The day’s lows came early in the night session following the reports of continued strife in the Middle East. Once the idea developed that there would be no more for the near term soy complex prices rallied out of that hole. Soybean oil could not sustain its attempt to rally due to the sharp break in the energy markets. Soybean meal caught some minor buying from that due to the inter-market spreading against the short soybean oil. Soybeans firmed on the idea that China will resume buying US soybeans once the trade accord is signed on the 15th. Additionally, trade guesses are calling for renewed declines in the projected US soybean carryout from the USDA on Friday. The story that private Chinese concerns were back to buying Brazilian origin kept gains in check as did CONAB suggesting the Brazilian soybean crop increasing by 1.15 M T. from last month’s estimate. Don’t forget that Brazil will start their harvest by month’s end and right now their crop is projected to be nearly 7.0 M T. greater vs. last year.

Most interior cash soybean markets continue to show a firm tone mostly from slow producer selling. The Gulf is fully steady with recent postings. Soybean spreads saw fractional improvement on the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the US interior remain slack looking. The Gulf for soy beanmeal doesn’t look much better. Meal spreads saw slight widening on the day.

The short term look at the soybean charts has them in a holding pattern. What are they “holding” for – to see what the USDA has to say on Friday as well as the possibility of renewed Chinese buying once the trade accord is signed on the 15th of this month? What is becoming apparent with this holding pattern is the likely accumulation of sell stops below the $9.37-$9.38 level (March). March bean oil’s inability to sustain today’s intra-day rally reinforces my idea that a top is developing here. Soybean meal also is in a holding pattern. Unlike the soybean market holding near its recent high end the soybean meal market is holding near its recent low end. I have to ask myself; “If bean oil does indeed top out will that continue to provide inter-market spread support to the meal market?”

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 9th   

March Soybeans: $9.35 – $9.55

March Soybean Meal: $300.0 – $305.0

March Soybean Oil: $34.25 – $35.00

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