Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 1 cent lower ($3.83 ¼), July 1 cent lower ($3.96 ¾) & Dec ¾ cents lower ($4.00)

February Chgo ethanol closed $0.001 cents a gallon lower ($1.334), March $0.001 cents lower ($1.354)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 350-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

If today’s price action is any indication of how the corn trader is sitting ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report it suggests he’s on the fence given the higher then lower action. It’s going to come to the supply bulls vs. the demand bears.

The average trade guess for US corn production is 13.513 billion bu.; down 148 million bu. from November – The average trade guess for projected US carryout is 1.757 million bu.; down 153 million bu. from December – The average trade guess for the projected World corn carryout is 296.61 M T.; down 3.95 M T. from December – the average trade guess for Dec 1st corn quarterly stocks is 11.511 billion bu.; down from 11.937 billion bu. year ago.

The underlying tone of the interior corn basis continues to be firm despite some periodic flip-flops. This same scenario holds true for the Gulf basis as well. Corn spreads ran the route of the flat price, firming early and then spending the rest of the day giving it back.

Corn price charts continue to show a bearish bias. Will the USDA confirm or deny?

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 10th    

March Corn: $3.75 – $3.95

July Corn: $3.89 – $4.08

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.