January Soybeans closed 4 ½ cents lower ($9.33 ¾), March 3 ¾ cents lower ($9.43 ½) & July 4 cents lower ($9.68 ¼)
January Soybean Meal closed $0.7 lower ($296.2), March $1.0 lower ($300.8) & July $0.9 lower ($309.9)
January Soybean Oil closed 8 pts higher ($34.35), March 8 pts higher ($34.64) & July 11 pts higher ($35.28)
Weekly Soybean Export Sales – old crop vs. 400-800 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K t. expected
Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – old crop vs. 75-250 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – old crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
Today’s trade was a great example of the various opinions surrounding the soybean market; higher to start and then fading. Will the USDA confirm a noticeably lower supply in the US? Will the large developing crop in SA offset? Will the Chinese buy market-making amounts of US soybeans once the trade deal is signed scheduled for the 15th or will they opt for the cheaper SA origin.
The average trade guess for US soybean production is 3.512 billion bu.; down 38 million bu. from November – The average trade guess for the US projected carryout is 424 million bu.; down 51 million bu. from December – the average trade guess for the projected World soybean carryout is 95.23 M T.; down 1.17 M T. from December – the average trade guess for the Dec 1st soybean quarterly stocks is 3.186 billion bu.; down from 3.786 billion bu. year ago.
The underlying tone of the interior soybean basis continues to be firm. This holds true for the Gulf as well. Soybean spreads ran fractionally mixed on the day. Offers to sell cash soybean meal in the interior continue to be slack looking. The same holds true for soybean meal at the Gulf. Meal spreads ran steady to fractionally mixed on the day.
We challenged short term resistance early in the day and then challenged short term support late in the day. The close was inconclusive. I have to think sell stops are accumulating below the $9.38-$9.37 level (March) Soybean meal charts flirted with interim sell signals during the day but failed to confirm. Once again bean oil tried to rally but fails to sustain. I may be out in left field but it looks to me bean oil may be forming a top.
Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 10th
March Soybeans: $9.30 – $9.55
March Soybean Meal: $297.0 – $305.0
March Soybean Oil: $34.25 ($33.75) – $35.50
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