Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 1 ½ cents lower ($3.87 ½), July 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.00 ½) & Dec 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.02 ½)

February Chgo ethanol closed $0.022 cents a gallon lower ($1.333), March $0.016 cents lower ($1.359)

Weekly Ethanol Grind – 1.095 million bpd vs. 1.062 week ago – Stocks – 23.0 million bbls vs. 22.5 million week ago

Weekly Corn Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. 200-250 K T. expected

The US/China Phase One trade accord has been signed!! Specific details continue to be lacking other than what we already knew. All of the rhetoric after the signing was nothing new. The corn market’s reaction was an easier finish. If it wasn’t for the strength in the Chgo wheat market I have think corn prices would have finished even lower. In recent days there has been some talk about how this past season’s corn crop won’t make grade to Chinese specifications due to light test weight. In addition it appears China is holding fast to its previously stated import quota of 7.2 M T. The bottom line is that the US corn market needs better export as I don’t domestic demand can incite the flat price rally many would like to see. For what it is worth Brazilian corn exports have been winding down but we have yet to see a better shift to the US.

The daily postings of the interior corn basis give us a mixed look on Wednesday. The overall tone of the interior basis continues to show a firm bias. The Gulf basis for corn stays relatively firm as well. Corn spreads ran mixed on the day as March gains fractionally on its deferred while May loses fractionally to its deferred.

Corn price charts are advertising trading range as its best possibility going forward. In the short run I’ll look at $3.82 to $3.92 while longer term suggests $3.75 to $4.00

Daily Support & Resistance for Jan 16th    

March Corn: $3.82 – $3.91

July Corn: $3.95 – $4.04

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