Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 2 cents lower ($3.79 ¾), July 2 ½ cents lower ($3.88 ¼) & Dec 1 ½ cents lower ($3.92)

March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.002 cents per gallon lower ($1.338), April $0.005 cents higher ($1.365)

Brazilian Corn Production (CONAB) – 100.486 M T. (26.058+73.271) vs. 98.711 M T. (26.617+70.936) in January vs. 100.043 M T. (25.647+73.178) year ago

Highlights of the USDA Corn Supply-Demand Report – US – increased ethanol usage by 50 million bu. – decreased exports by 50 million bu. – left carryout unchanged – World – decreased carryout by 970 K T.

If you were hoping for some new direction from today’s USDA Supply-Demand report you came up empty. The USDA did some “push-pull” with the domestic data and the end result was a wash, meaning an unchanged carryout. The World data featured a modest increase in usage but it did not come from the US. The end result was a modestly lower close that featured some renewed bull spreading within the current crop year. I do think the corn market did receive some left-handed support from a sinking Chgo wheat market; the unwinding of long wheat/short corn inter-market spreads.

The overall trend of the interior corn basis continues to be firm despite some intermittent weakness from time to time. The Gulf basis doesn’t do a whole lot in either direction. Corn spreads had a bullish bias within the current year due a lack of movement and questions around the quality of the remaining corn stocks. Despite the spreads tightening within the current crop year old crop corn loses noticeably to the new crop.

Even though the flat price of corn finished modestly lower the immediate trend remains sideways. Support levels for March corn continue to be $3.75 followed by $3.70. Near term resistance levels are the mid-high $3.80’s followed by something closer to the $3.95. So what’s out there to push this market out of the weeks old sideways? I’m open to suggestions. Similar to today’s USDA report the corn market will continue to deal with a lot of “push-pull”.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/12

March Corn – $3.76 – $3.85

July Corn – $3.85 – $3.94

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