Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed ½ cent higher ($8.84 ¾), July unchanged ($9.10 ¼) & Nov unchanged ($9.19 ¼)

March Soybean Meal closed $0.6 lower ($290.8), July $0.3 lower ($301.9) & Dec $0.2 lower ($308.7)

March Soybean Oil closed 10 pts higher ($30.72), July 9 pts higher ($31.46) & Dec 11 pts higher ($32.09)

Brazilian Soybean Production (CONAB) – 123.25 M T. vs. 122.25 M T. in January vs. 115.030 M T. year ago

Highlights of the USDA Soybean Supply-Demand Report – US – increased exports by 50 million bu. – decreased carryout by 50 million bu. – World – increased carryout by 2.19 M T.

The USDA increases US soybean disappearance yet increases global supply due to a higher Brazilian crop. The end result was a major non-event as far as price changes were concerned. If the US soybean complex is going to have any sustained upside it will have to come from “political” problems in Argentina. Both labor and producers have threatened retaliation against their government if it insists on going through with export duties.

Cash soybean prices (basis) continues to show a firm tone from a lack of producer selling. Spreads ran mostly unchanged on the day with fractional improvement involving the March contract. Most meal manufacturers have rolled to basis May and it suggests better basis levels. Not much happens with the meal export basis at the Gulf. Meal spreads finished the day with fractional losses.

Soybean price charts show the market in a minor consolidation mode. Given the March contract’s price performance over the past 5-6 days anyone trying to be friendly will not want to see closes much below the $8.75 level. March soybean meal continues to honor its suggested upside reversal from last Thursday. Anyone trying to be friendly to this market will not want to see closes below the $288.0 level. March soybean oil is trying to realize support below the $30.50 level. Strength in the past came from a stronger palm market and lately it has been unable to perform due to fears from the coronavirus. The best scenario if we are to see higher soybean prices is to have the meal market leading the way higher. So far the recent efforts by soybean meal have been iffy at best.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/12

March Soybeans – $8.75 – $8.95

March Soy Meal – $288.0 – $295.0

March Soy Oil – $30.25 – $31.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.