Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 3 ½ cents lower ($3.79 ½), July 1 ½ cents lower ($3.88 ¾) & Dec 1 cent lower ($3.92)

March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.002 cents per gallon lower ($1.343), April $0.002 cents lower ($1.366)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 968.8 K T. old crop vs. 700 K – 1.200 M T. expected – no new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

The recent push/pull (flip-flop if you will) continues. On January 30th March corn closed at $3.79 ½. Since then we have closed ¾ of cent below that level and 4 cents above that level. Last but not least we closed at $3.79 ½ today. The average March corn close for the past 12 trading sessions is $3.80 ¾; talk about a market going nowhere fast. Today’s weekly export sales were deemed as “okay” as they came in mid range of expectations. Exports were 782.8 K T. – a marketing year high. Despite these relatively looking supportive numbers they were offset by a story suggesting Ukraine has sold 5-6 cargoes of corn this week to China.

The interior corn basis has taken on a mixed look as the processor basis east of the Mississippi River stays firm and west of the River appears to be easing. Locations along the mid-Miss and the Illinois River appear to be easing their respective basis levels.  The Gulf, as far as I’m concerned, is a non-event. Corn spreads saw some noticeable easing from recent strength.

I’m not sure the corn market can get much flatter. Unfortunately I don’t see anything out there at this point in time that will give us a sustaining rally. The Phase One agreement officially kicks in this weekend. Will China buy any corn from us next week? I don’t think I should hold my breath. Next Thursday, Friday the USDA holds its annual Outlook Conference. The wild card there is if they make any demand changes from what was outlined in November. If you want to know what they outlined then let me know and I’ll send you the spread sheet going out to 2029.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/14

March Corn – $3.78 ($3.76) – $3.85

July Corn – $3.87 ($3.85) – $3.94

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