Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($8.96 ¼), July 3 ¼ cents higher ($9.18) & Nov 2 ½ cents higher ($9.23 ¾)

March Soybean Meal closed $0.2 higher ($291.9), July $0.2 higher ($303.3) & Dec $1.7 higher ($309.8)

March Soybean Oil closed 31 pts lower ($30.72), July 30 pts lower ($31.47) & Dec 27 pts lower ($32.11)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 644.8 K T. old crop vs. 600 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 6.3 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 234.2 K T. old crop vs. 125-400 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 39.1 K T. old crop vs. 7-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Weekly soybean export sales were deemed no big deal as they favored the low side of expectations yet the flat price continues to grind higher. Soybean meal found some left handed support from a sagging bean oil market. Soybean oil continues to take its cue from the Palm market which was lower in response to the reports of the coronavirus spreading at a faster rate that had been originally thought. If I had to guess what the higher price was in response to it is spec short covering ahead of the weekend. This weekend the Phase One agreement officially kicks in and there has been some “speculation” that the Chinese government may issue some duty free import licenses to show good faith. Given the recent big amount of trade down in Brazil I don’t think I should be holding my breath. Then again what demand changes may the USDA have for us at their Outlook Conference late next week. If you re interested in what they laid out in November let me know.

Interior soybean basis levels, both processor and river, continue to hold strong. The Gulf too is showing basis strength not seen since early January. Soybean spreads were firm within the current crop year and mixed looking vs. the new crop. The Iowa basis for meal is firming, unchanged elsewhere. The Gulf for meal is nothing special. Upfront Board crush margins are getting whacked from the lack of cash soybean movement which in turn rallies the price of soybeans while the price of the products is not keeping up.

March soybeans tap at the low side of suspected resistance, $9.00-$9.05, and so far fail to follow through. March soybean meal challenges the interim high made earlier this week and fails to follow through. Soybean oil fails to follow though from this week’s earlier attempt at retracing higher due to a failing palm market. The veg oil market’s direction continues to take its cue from the daily updates on the coronavirus.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/14

March Soybeans – $8.85 – $9.05

March Soy Meal – $288.0 – $295.0

March Soy Oil – $30.25 – $31.25

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