Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 5 ¼ cents higher ($3.83), July 5 cents higher ($3.90 ½) & Dec 4 ½ cents higher ($3.93 ¼)

March Chgo Ethanol closed $0.007 cents per gallon higher ($1.365), April $0.003 cents higher ($1.381)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 795.2 K T. vs. 600-800 K T. expected

Flat price corn follows the zooming wheat market higher but to a much lesser extent. The Chinese announcement about lowering tariffs (no details) lent minor support (China not expected to import much US corn) as did the solid looking weekly export inspections. S. Korea continues to be an active corn buyer. Export shipments out of Argentina have been slow but this weekend they did issue new corn export licenses. It’s my opinion that the majority of today’s buying was speculative short covering.

I’m not seeing many changes with the interior corn basis. Decatur, IL is 2 cents easier, Cedar Rapids, IA is 2 cents better and Council Bluffs is 2 cents easier. The midday Gulf basis runs unchanged with the past couple of days. Corn spreads ran fractionally mixed with in the current crop year while old crop gains a bit on the new crop.

Last Friday’s close was the lowest we have seen in the past three weeks. Today’s higher close just reassures us that the trading range affair lives on. So what’s out there to take us out of this trading range? At the end of the week the USDA will have its annual Outlook Conference. In past years (not all years) they have tweaked the Demand side of the equation for the upcoming next couple of years. At the very least they should factor in the lower carry-in from this past year’s crop.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/19

March Corn – $3.78 ½ – $3.85 ($3.88)

July Corn – $3.86 ½ – $3.94

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.