Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 1 ½ cents lower ($8.92 ¼), July 1 ½ cents lower ($9.14) & Nov 1 ¼ cents lower ($9.21 ¼)

March Soybean Meal closed $1.1 higher ($292.2), July $0.3 higher ($302.7) & Dec $0.1 lower ($308.9)

March Soybean Oil closed 9 pts lower ($30.48), July 11 pts lower ($31.22) & Dec 8 pts lower ($31.92)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections – 992.3 K T. vs. 700 K – 1.250 M T. expected

NOPA January Crush – 176.9 million bu. of soybeans vs. 173.7 expected – Soybean Oil stocks – 2.013 billion lbs. (highest since April 2018) vs. 1.782 expected – Soybean Meal Exports – 931.0 K T. (highest in 15 months)

The soybean complex continues to act like it’s caught between a rock and a hard place. The Chinese announcement that they would be lowering import tariffs on a number of US items (no details as of this writing) was offset by the idea the Brazilian soybean crop continues to grow in size. Conditions in Argentina remain conducive to a sizable crop. The NOPA crush date was supportive to both soybeans and soybean meal but the resulting price performance left a lot to be desired. Soybean oil was kept under wraps from a doggy palm oil market (coronavirus fears) and a bearish looking stocks figure from NOPA. There is some chatter about the ports of Brazil getting so clogged with their new crop that some Chinese crushers have voiced they may be going to the US PNW for a quicker shipment.

The interior soybean basis has taken on a mixed look. The Ohio River lowers its basis by 2 cents, Seneca, IL lower by 2 cents, Decatur, IN up 1 cent and Savanna, IL up 1 cent. The Gulf basis can be called mixed to a shade easier. Soybean spreads ran mixed on the day; March loses to May while May gains going forward. Not much happens with the interior soybean meal basis and for that matter the Gulf as well. Meal spreads showed a bullish bias all the way to the new crop (I’m told it’s all about the better export business).

The price trend in soybeans is struggling to maintain its recent attempt at moving higher. This holds true for the meal market as well. We need to see some Chinese announcements sooner vs. later to keep these markets alive. Soybean oil continues to take its cue from the palm market and that is a struggle as well. Failure to see the $30.00 hold will probably attract some additional long liquidation. If any of the complex can see closes above last week’s highs, with conviction, should spark some new additional spec buying. Funds continue to be sizable shorts in both beans and meal while that have been slowly but surely liquidating net longs on bean oil.

Daily Support & Resistance – 2/19

March Soybeans – $8.85 – $9.00 ($9.05)

March Soy Meal – $289.0 – $295.0

March Soy Oil – $30.00 – $31.00

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