Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 2 ½ cents lower ($3.84 ½), July 2 ½ cents lower ($3.83 ¾) & Dec 1 ¾ cents lower ($3.83 ¾)

April Chgo Ethanol closed $0.027 cents a gallon lower ($1.257), May $0.027 lower ($1.276)

Weekly Corn Export Sales – 769.2 K T. old crop vs. 700 K – 1.200 M T. expected – 100.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected

Today’s slump in equity markets acted as a dark cloud over most agricultural commodity markets in the US.

Weekly corn export sales were deemed no big deal as they favored the low end of expectations. Prices for ethanol continue to ratchet lower which in turn weighs on corn prices. It is being rumored that China may be looking for some DDG’s but so far nothing has been confirmed. With Argentina increasing its export duties on soybeans and products the thought is now the Argentine producer will be more of willing seller of his new crop corn in order to facilitate his cash flow.

Interior cash corn prices (basis) continues to quite firm despite the recent rally in the futures market. This holds true for the Gulf as well. We have yet to see any deliveries against the March contract. This helped support the March/May spread but did little to support the May forward spreads as they slumped a bit after their recent strengthening.

The overhead technical resistance that was established 1 ½ weeks ago is so far holding true. Next Monday the USDA will update its Supply-Demand data. Trade expectations are suggesting it will be a non-event. The average trade guess from the Reuters poll suggests the US corn carryout will decline by just 4 Million bu. while the World carryout will increase by 420 K T.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/06

July Corn – $3.80 – $3.86

Dec Corn – $3.80 – $3.86 

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