Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 9 ¾ cents lower ($8.89), July 10 ¼ cents lower ($9.05) & Nov 9 cents lower ($9.08 ½)

March Soybean Meal closed $4.8 lower ($300.4), July $4.4 lower ($308.4) & Dec $3.5 lower ($311.3)

March Soybean Oil closed 34 pts lower ($29.10), July 30 pts lower ($29.75) & Dec 28 pts lower ($30.47)

Weekly Soybean Export Sales – 345.0 K T. old crop vs. 500 K – 1.000 M T. expected – 1.4 K T. new crop vs. 0-25 K T. expected

Weekly Soybean Meal Export Sales – 316.6 K T. old crop vs. 225-400 K T. expected – 4.9 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Weekly Soybean Oil Export Sales – 43.6 K T. old crop vs. 8-30 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Today’s slump in equity markets acted as a dark cloud over most agricultural commodity markets in the US.

Weekly soybean export sales continue to disappoint. It has been suggested that China has received a number of tariff waiver requests for US soybeans but so far no sales have been reported. The thought continues that any soybean sales to China will be for new crop as Brazil continues to be the cheaper origin for old crop. Argentina has re-opened export registrations after instituting export duty hikes. The Argentine Rural Confederation CRA is set to launch a commercial strike in response to the export duty hikes. This strike will start on Monday and last for 4 days. Its immediate impact is expected to be minimal.

The interior cash soybean and soybean meal markets continue to show affirm tone. I’m told it’s all about slow producer movement. This has the Gulf values holding firm as well. This has the nearby March/May spreads holding firm but after that the May forward spreads softened. I think that softness is directly related to the flat price selling we saw today.

Suspected technical resistance levels are holding. These are $9.20 for July soybeans, $315.0 for July meal and $30.50 for July soybean oil. Without any Chinese announcements and an equity market back to looking rather shaky I can’t imagine going home on Friday looking friendly. On Monday the USDA will update supply-demand. The latest traders’ poll suggests the US soybean carryout may increase by 1 million bu. and the World carryout may increase by 470 K T. It will be interesting to see going forward how the USDA will handle the lack of old crop soybeans sales to China.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/06

July Soybeans – $8.98 – $9.14

July Soy Meal – $306.0 – $312.0

July Soy Oil – $29.40 – $30.10

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