Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

March Corn closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($3.80), July 4 ½ cents higher ($3.79 ½) & Dec 4 ¼ cents higher ($3.80 ½)

April Chgo Ethanol closed $0.034 cents a gallon higher ($1.244), May $0.034 higher ($1.265)

CONAB – Brazilian Corn Production – 100.083 M T. (25.560 + 73.366) vs. 100.486 M T. (26.058 + 73.271) in February

Highlights USDA Corn Supply-Demand – US – left all data unchanged – World – increased carryout 500 K T.

Old crop corn keeps its bounce alive after challenging contract lows early yesterday. The other side of that coin is that today’s rally honored suspected minor resistance that was established last week. The USDA March Supply-Demand update was deemed a non-event as they left all domestic data unchanged and raised the World carryout in line with expectations. The USDA did remind us of the export competition we are seeing from Ukraine as they raised their exports by 1.0 M T. Other than the USDA report I did not see much other corn based direct news. Today’s buying has to be viewed as spec short covering in response to the equity and energy markets trying to stabilize.

The interior cash corn markets have taken on a steady to easier look as the Ohio River and the Illinois River appear a bit easier and as do selected ethanol locations. The midday Gulf posting pops up 1 cent from Monday’s easier post. The bids at the Gulf have ranged from 50 cents over to 54 cents over for the past week while offers have ranged from 53 cents over to 57 cents over. Corn spreads finished with fractional improvements on the day. Corn spreads continue to take their cue from the soon to expire March contract as we’ve yet to see any deliveries. The lack of deliveries is a result of the strong cash market as well as the lack of corn that meets delivery specs.

Mid last week the corn market tried to rally through resistance levels that were established during the month of February and stumbled rather badly. Today’s close sets up another test of that resistance. Personally I don’t think the corn market is going anywhere of substance up or down. With that said and you think the corn market is getting to point where it may indeed follow through to the upside – sell it!!

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/11

July Corn – $3.74 – $3.84

Dec Corn – $3.75 – $3.85 

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.