Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

March Soybeans closed 9 ½ cents higher ($8.73), July 5 ½ cents higher $8.84 ¼) & Nov 5 ¼ cents higher ($8.91 ½)

March Soybean Meal closed $0.7 lower ($295.9), July $1.3 higher ($306.0) & Dec $1.1 higher ($310.6)

March Soybean Oil closed 13 pts higher ($27.44), July 12 pts higher ($28.02) & Dec 12 pts higher ($28.87)

CONAB – Brazilian Soybean Production – 124.205 M T. vs. 123.250 M T. in February

USDA announces 123.0 K T. old crop soybeans sold to Unknown

Highlights USDA Soybean Supply-Demand – US – left all data unchanged – World – increased carryout 3.58 M T.

Outside markets stabilize on Tuesday and that led to the soy complex stabilizing. The USDA supply-demand report for the US domestic market was deemed a non-event while the world data was a reminder of the big supply slated to come out of SA. The ability to retrace Monday’s losses was puny in my opinion. On Monday July soybeans lost 21 cents, they got back 5 ½ cents today. The product markets saw similar meager retracements. Granted the USDA announced another 2 cargo sale to unknown. At that rate the eventuality will be a cut to exports leading to an increased carryout. The USDA says we need to cut China some slack from the virus – that hasn’t stopped them from buying large amounts of Brazilian origin.

The interior cash soybean markets continue to hold firm from a lack of movement. The same holds true for the midday Gulf posting. Soybean spreads firmed in response to the solid looking basis levels. Cash meal markets, both interior and for export, are showing easier postings. Meal spreads, May forward, got back some of what they lost on Monday.

Today’s early attempt to get into the gap that was created on Sunday’s lower opening failed miserably for July soybeans. Early in the day it looked like the meal market was ready to do something on the upside and it failed as well. The same held true for soybean oil. It seems our best buying continues to be short covering and that just doesn’t cut it. Without China buying the US soybean complex will continue to languish as it struggles to play second fiddle to Brazil.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/11

July Soybeans – $8.75 – $8.95

July Soy Meal – $302.0 – $310.0

July Soy Oil – $27.50 – $28.75

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