Corn Commentary


Corn – Just My Opinion

May Corn closed ¼ cent lower ($3.43 ½), July unchanged ($3.49 ½) & Dec 1 cent higher ($3.64 ¼)

April Chgo Ethanol closed $0.099 cents a gallon lower ($0.883), May $0.099 lower ($0.905)

Weekly Corn Export Inspections – 816.6 K T. vs. 700 K – 1.050 M T. expected

Despite the sharp strength elsewhere within the Ag complex the corn market continues to languish. Its all about the ethanol market and its losing margins for most processors. With ethanol prices running 30 cents a gallon over RBOB that dog just doesn’t hunt. Corn exports are not enough to pick up the slack. One has to remember that the ethanol grind accounts for nearly one third of the US corn disappearance. The only positive I see that may be developing is the ongoing dryness in parts of Brazil that may impact up to 20% of their 2nd season production.

Granted there is very little cash corn moving basis levels, especially to the processor, remain on the defensive. The midday posting at the Gulf is mostly steady with what we saw late last week. If anything offers may be edging higher. Corn spreads run fractionally softer on the day out to May 2021.

Old crop corn charts continue to show a bearish look since prices were unable to sustain Friday’s attempt to rally. The rejection of Friday’s highs suggest the Chinese sale announcement may be a one-time deal. The new crop corn picture is not much better. It is receiving left-handed support from the bear spreading. The only thing going for the new crop is the unknown going forward whether it be weather and/or late decisions by the processor to cut back on initially intended acres.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/24

July Corn – $3.42 – $3.55

Dec Corn – $3.59 – $3.70 

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