Soybeans Commentary


Soybeans – Just My Opinion

May Soybeans closed 21 ½ cents higher ($8.84), July 20 ¾ cents higher ($8.85 ½) & Nov 11 ¾ cents higher ($8.72 ½)

May Soybean Meal closed $8.4 higher ($333.6), July $9.6 higher ($324.0) & Dec $5.6 higher ($311.3)

May Soybean Oil closed 50 pts higher ($26.14), July 46 pts higher ($26.40) & Dec 41 pts higher ($27.22)

Weekly Soybean Export Inspections -570.6 K T. vs. 450-650 K T. expected

Soybean meal continues to be the deal within the soybean complex. You’ve heard me say it before, “as goes the soybean meal so goes the soybeans”.  Soybean meal continues to find support from the unknown in SA; will Brazil and Argentina continue to ship soybeans (Brazil) and products (Argentina) due to virus concerns? What about that same scenario here in the US? Dalian soybean meal was limit up today. Slow cash soybean movement here in the US adds to the upwards push in soybean meal. Soybean oil was able to catch a bid despite the depressed energy sector as its focus turned to the possible shipping problems out of Argentina.

The interior soybean basis has a mixed look to it today. The processor has the best basis as he chases the strong crush margins. Locations along the river systems flip flop back and forth but they do have to compete with the processor for origination. One would think we would see some cash movement with the 50 cent plus rally, but bull spreads are still working especially the old crop vs. the new crop. Offers to sell cash soybean meal continue to stay firm. This holds true for export offers as well. Last week it was the May meal contract leading the bull spreads higher; today the leader was the July contract.

July soybeans appear to be targeting the gap at $8.97 ½. The best looking support is down towards the mid-low $8.60’s. Last season’s fall high for July meal is $326.5. Attaining that level should probably be taken as a given. I am showing a “close only” trend line coming in at that same level. After that we look at something in the mid-low $330’s. Retracement support comes in around the $315.0 level. Even though July soybean oil is viewed as the weak sister of the complex its recent 5 days of consolidation can be viewed as a bottoming effort. The worst case scenario for bean oil is continued consolidation.

Daily Support & Resistance – 3/24

July Soybeans – $8.67 – $8.99

July Soy Meal – $315.0.0 – $327.5 ($332.0)

July Soy Oil – $25.90 – $26.95

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